Amber Countries> China

Overtly however the Chinese have been viewed as somewhat ‘friendly’ and an ally in the “War On Terror”. This was a swift turn around though from the opening months of the Bush regime when the Chinese brought down a US spy plane over their territory. This created somewhat of a diplomatic storm between the two traditional enemies. Despite them now being both totally dependent on each other for their economies it seemed that the bad old days of Communist versus Capitalist tension was back on the table. The airmen were held for 11 days by the Chinese before being released. And it was a further three months before the complete plane had been returned, in pieces, to the Americans. These tensions however generally melted away later in the year when the 9/11 attacks occurred. The Chinese were quick to offer at least verbal support to the Americans and did not stand in the way of the Afghan invasion. However as the rest of the Bush foreign policy plan has been unfolded the relationship has grown decidedly icier.

The Chinese are more than likely going to play out any global war in a very cool and reserved manner. Having said that, there are a number of flash points now that could draw them into a military confrontation. If the Korean peninsula were to erupt into war again they may eventually have to get involved. Their old enmity with neighbouring Japan seemed to have been steadily building of late, so if Japan is dragged into a new Korean war then the chances of a new Sino Japanese war are there. Those tensions, however, have been somewhat lessened in the past month, since the election of the new Japanese prime minister, who has been frantically trying to heal rifts between the two nations.

However in the face of a nuclear arms race in the region or other hostilities this work may collapse again. It is far more likely though, that they will just arm North Korea to do this dirty work for them. At any rate the Chinese military has had its leave cancelled and is in a state of preparedness for trouble following the North Korean nuclear test. Publicly the Chinese are stating that this is to deal with any potential floods of refuges that may come streaming across their borders in the event of war on the peninsula. But it could also be ensuring their preparedness for the much larger conflict that is looming.

Far more probable a flash-point for China is with Taiwan. If the Chinese sense that the US is now hopelessly bogged down on numerous fronts across the world they may take the opportunity to finally make good on their age old threat to invade Taiwan. The Chinese see Taiwan as their territory and for many years have been planning to invade it and take it back. The only thing preventing them has been the military deterrent of the US forces in the area. Indeed, the Chinese ambassador to the UN made it clear back in August 2006, following the Lebanon crisis, that China was ready to sacrifice its own people's lives if any nation supported a declaration of independence by Taiwan. He stated that China was prepared to “… do the business through whatever means available to my government. Nobody should have any illusions on that. We will do the business at any cost.” He also said the US needed to “shut up” in that interview. So it is highly likely that this will become a flash-point of the world war.

And of course, the attack on Iran will have a more immediate effect on China, as Iran is one of their major sources of oil. Therefore, they will be extremely unsettled by any attacks on this nation that may interrupt their oil supply. They may find themselves in a situation where they have to defend their oil interests in the region. Indeed, they have set up a defence organisation with neighbouring countries in the region called the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation that may be used for just this purpose.

Map of China

Amber Countries> Cuba

Earlier in the year the long ruling dictator of Cuba, Fidel Castro, became seriously ill and handed over power to his brother Raul. For the first few weeks of Raul’s rule no sign was seen of Fidel. As such, the Americans announced that they were fairly sure he was dead and began broadcasting to the Cuban people that they were ready to begin assisting with a transfer to ‘democracy’ in the country. Many saw this as a veiled attempt at causing the Cuban people to rise up and overthrow the government in the vacuum that Fidel’s passing had created. Of course, no such vacuum actually existed and eventually Fidel reappeared following his operation. In the meantime, the Cuban’s issued a warning to the United States that they must respect Cuban sovereignty and placed their military on high alert against an impending US invasion. It seems unlikely the US were actually intending to invade, however it saw yet another potential theatre of the world war engaging in a military build up.

Why this will be a potential theatre is due largely to the neighbouring nation of Venezuela. Venezuela’s maverick leader Hugo Chavez is a close personal friend of Fidel Castro’s and has been steadily cementing the ties between the two countries to be the strongest ally in a number of years. It seems highly likely that Cuba and Venezuela now have a mutual defence pact with each other. Thus any war that will break out between the US and Venezuela during the world war will inevitably drag Cuba in as it will be required to come to Venezuela’s aid. It seems that they have been readying for this, as their military is on alert -- obviously aware of what the consequences of an Iran attack will be for their region.

Ironically, the US has a military presence in Cuba in a bay that they captured during the Spanish – American war of the 1800’s. This bay is known as Guantanamo Bay and a large US naval base exists there. To date, even during the many past military conflicts and tensions between Cuba and the US, the Cubans have not dared to attack it. However there is now a rather large detention centre at the site that is being used to illegally house many individuals captured in the US’s “War On Terror”. Should a more serious open conflict erupt between these nations it will be interesting to see if the Cubans attempt to liberate the peoples of this camp.

Map of Cuba

Amber Countries> Eritrea

The Ethiopians began accusing Eritrea of flying in weapons to the Somalis ahead of the impending war. Indeed, neutral observers on the ground were seeing strange flights from Eritrea landing at Somali airports. This led to a strong rebuke from Ethiopia. It seems that if war between Somalia and Ethiopia eventually gets under way the Ethiopians may indeed have to open a second front by attacking Eritrea again, in an attempt to cut supply lines to their Somali enemies. In light of this it was not surprising that earlier this week (16/10/06) Eritrea suddenly moved about 1500 troops and 14 tanks into the buffer zone on the border with Ethiopia. This violates earlier ceasefire agreements they have with Ethiopia. They claim they are just there to harvest crops, however the presence of tanks makes this a slightly disingenuous claim. There is a high risk that any horn of Africa war will eventually drag Eritrea into it, thus further widening this theatre of the world war.

Map of Eritrea

Amber Countries> India

Since the train bombings in Mumbai in, July 2006, the peace process between these two nations is in tatters with future talks over the region cancelled. The Indians have directly implicated the Pakistani military with being involved in the train bombings. While General Musharraf is in charge of Pakistan it is unlikely that India will allow this hostility to escalate to full scale war as their major ally, the US, will be applying massive pressure against this.

But should General Musharraf be toppled following the Iran strikes, India would be very quick to seize on this opportunity to attack. Indeed, the US may even request such an attack to assist them if they were loosing control of that important flank of their theatres in Iran and Afghanistan.

Map of India

Amber Countries> Japan

The biggest threat to Japan will be North Korea. The North Korean missile tests that have taken place over the years tend to be fired in their direction and have landed within their territory at times. Now that they have gone nuclear this will increase the risk of Japan feeling the need to make a nuclear bomb of its own. It has also prompted the US to discuss a missile defence shield that will be deployed to the area. The reasons why the North may be choosing Japan as a target are numerous. The Japanese staged a bloody occupation of the Korean peninsula during World War II that has left many Koreans with a hatred of the Japanese. They will also be doing this as they see Japan as the closest ally of the US that may be used against them if they attack South Korea. And if North Korea really is the puppet state of the Chinese that some suspect, it could be a way for the Chinese to once more hurt the Japanese without directly implicating themselves.

The Chinese and Japanese have fought numerous wars throughout history and very little love is lost between these two nations. Indeed in the past few years, under the rule of Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro, the relationship between the two countries has been rapidly deteriorating. In recent months the new Prime Minister, who has only just come into office, has travelled on a diplomatic mission to China to try and heal these rifts but it may be too little too late if a generalised war erupts in the region. A new Sino-Japanese war could be the end result if the US is forced to use the Japanese against the North Koreans or even against the Chinese themselves in the event of an attack on Taiwan. In light of this a great militarisation is taking place in Japan as they ready themselves for the coming war.

map of Japan

Amber Countries> Sudan

As well as its Al Qaeda links this nation has long been wracked by internal divisions between a number of disparate groups in the country. But these divisions and wars have often been exacerbated by the large oil reserves the nation holds. Many suspect that an old civil war between the Muslim north and the Christian south had oil as one of its causes. This war has since ceased and the south is fairly autonomous. Now the war is raging in the western province of Darfur. This is ostensibly taking place between Arab Muslims and the Negroid Muslims who were once their slaves. Some speculate that the oil interests in the region may indeed again be fuelling this current civil war.

The Chinese have access to the vast majority of Sudanese oil reserves. As such they are sponsoring and supporting the central Arab government in Khartoum with exceptional fervour, even protecting them from the UN Security Council’s attempts at shutting down the alleged genocide in the region. In the face of this the US is desperately trying to get some sort of ‘peace’ force on the ground that will be under their sway. They have even invited one of the opposing Negroid rebel leaders to come and visit them in Washington, although this particular rebel leader is supposed to be in a peace deal with the central Arab government. Even so, if this was a genuine attempt to use an intermediary to patch things up between Washington and Khartoum it does not appear to have worked. And there are some that accuse Washington of doing little more than setting up a network through which they can arm elements friendly to them via their agents in neighbouring Chad. Far from ending the war this seems to just be prolonging it.

Regardless of what may have driven this war to begin with it does seem to be shaping up to be a new hot zone in a clash between the west and China over oil. If a greater war erupts following the Iran strike this region could very easily see some sort of action. Especially as the neighbouring horn of Africa will also be in turmoil with the Ethiopia Somali war raging.

map of Sudan

Amber Countries> Taiwan

Although they had been resoundingly defeated on the mainland they carried on with a remarkable bravado and announced that the city of Taipei on Taiwan was now the new capital of all of China. As such, they refused to acknowledge that the Communists had won and viewed themselves as being the rulers of China, even though the facts were quite clear that their government only held a sphere of influence that covered the island itself. The Communists for their part refused to acknowledge that these rebels held the island and continued to view it as part of their dominion. As the cold war was now in full swing the US checked any Communist advance to rout these last holdout rebels from the island and so the odd case of modern Taiwan was born. The conflict was frozen in a holding pattern and has continued to this day.

Technically, Taiwan is not an independent nation as both sides of the conflict view themselves as being the rulers of China. But it has grown apart from the mainland in culture and is analogous to Hong Kong and Macau in how capitalism flourished in an outpost of Chinese peoples. The mainland Chinese, for their part, have long threatened that they will eventually attack Taiwan and recapture it. The Taiwanese are split over what they want their future to be. Some wish to reunify with the mainland, albeit after the mainland goes through some social changes of its own, whilst others wish to finally admit that they do not control all of China and secede, becoming their own independent nation with a unique Taiwanese culture. The mainland Chinese threaten that this would be the inevitable spark of a new war between the sides.

As the remnants of the cold war era the US still offers great assistance to several groups in the region as a counter to Communism. South Korea is held up against North Korea, and of course, Taiwan is offered immense support to act as a buffer to China. The US military presence in the region has thus served as a buffer to protect these nations from their traditional enemies. Should a greater showdown be brewing between China and the US in the new world war then this region risks further conflict as part of this. Even if the Chinese are not directly opposing the US they may take advantage of the US’s over stretched military, once it is comprehensively bogged down in the middle east, and could attack Taiwan.

The Taiwanese are obviously aware of this fact and they held the largest practice run war games in over 30 years, back in July 2006, during the Lebanon crisis. They also broadcast to the west the urgent need for a restocking of their missile and other weapons supplies. It is probably safe to assume that those weapons have been steadily arriving over the past few months as the new showdown with Iran approaches and as the North Koreans have conducted their nuclear test.

map of Taiwan

Amber Countries> Venezuela

In 2002 a new round of elections in the country saw him re-elected to the presidency. Then, even as they were waging war in Afghanistan, it appears that the US attempted to overthrow him by fostering a coup within the country. Internal unrest over his wish to nationalise the booming oil industry was capitalised upon and striking oil workers and other related business people began protesting against him. At the height of this unrest rioting broke out between pro and anti Chavez elements. Protestors were killed by sniper fire in the confusion. It is unclear who was responsible for the shootings but in the chaos members of the military loyal to the US staged their coup.

There is now much evidence to suggest that this coup was financed by the US government and may even have had CIA operatives assisting it. It was short lived however, and lasted a mere 48 hours. Large sections of the army were still loyal to Chavez and the coup quickly collapsed. Chavez was released from imprisonment and some of the coup plotters were captured and arrested. This was the last straw and since then Chavez has worked on fostering relations with as many of the US’s enemies as possible. He has also consolidated much more power within his country so the chances of a future coup from within are less. He does however, still sell oil to the US as part of his countries economic wellbeing. Since this failed coup he has been accusing the US of potentially planning a full scale invasion of his nation, although the US deny this publicly.

In 2005 the well known Christian Evangelist Pat Robertson, who is a close friend of George Bush, appeared on American television calling for Hugo Chavez’s assassination. He made the astonishing claim that Chavez would not only spread Communism in the region but also Muslim extremism. One wonders how a Socialist from staunchly Catholic South America was going to spread Islamofacism in any form. However this was Robertson’s contention, so he called for operatives to be sent in to assassinate him. Again a new low was reached in the relationship between the nations because of this.

Back in July 2006, at the height of the Lebanon crisis with Iran squarely in US crosshairs, Chavez travelled to Iran and began to forge new ties with that nation. Given their combined oil power this was not a pleasant outcome for the US. Both he and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seemed to hit it off well. Indeed, they have a similar irreverent style of world leadership. Chavez even withdrew the Venezuelan ambassador from Israel over the war in Lebanon, thus cementing which side he would stand on in the ensuing world war.

This new connection has essentially meant that an Iranian ally now exists right in the US’s back yard. To combat this, the US announced that they were going to enforce an arms embargo against Venezuela. However there has been a steady build up of weapons and military might inside the nation despite this. The Russians have even defied the embargo and built an AK-47 factory in the country. And they are shipping numerous weapons to the Venezuelans as well. Chavez has claimed they will soon be ready to defend “every street, every hill, every corner.” Again this indicates a massive military build up in another of the theatres this madness will engulf. And it also suggests a broader US versus Russia and China showdown is growing.

The diplomatic sparring came to a head in September 2006 when both Chavez and Ahmadinejad visited the UN, as part of a major conference taking place there. Both men gave impassioned speeches before the UN assembly. They then did a whistle stop tour of the US itself, giving interviews and otherwise embarrassing the Neo-Cons on their own turf. The crowning glory of all this was when Chavez, in front of the entire UN assembly, blatantly called George Bush the Devil and said that he had left behind a “smell of sulphur.” This was actually met with some applause. Chavez also made mention of the possibility that 9/11 was engineered by the Neo-Cons themselves -- the first time a world leader had blatantly echoed the assertions made by the 9/11 Truth Movement. Both Chavez and Ahmadinejad also reiterated their support for each other.

All this adds up to leaving Venezuela at great risk of being sucked into the war once the assault on Iran begins. Chavez will likely begin by attempting to cut off his flow of oil to the US. Depending how deranged they are at this point, the US could choose to then attack on this front as well, either directly or through a proxy. Any such attack on Venezuela will definitely then see Cuba becoming embroiled in the war. And it runs the risk of pulling other South American countries into the fray, creating a much broader theatre in this region for the world war.

Map of Venezuela

Map of Egypt

Green Countries> Jordan

However many of the people of Jordan do not agree with this. There have been numerous terrorist attacks over the past two years within Jordan by militant groups from both local areas and next door in Iraq. They have been launched against western targets in an attempt to drive a wedge between King Hussein, the Jordanians in general and their allies.

Since the invasion of Iraq there have been a number of mass protests against the King for his support of the west and some of them have ended in violent clashes between the people and the police force. It seems that since the war in Lebanon, King Hussein has in fact been distancing himself from the west. This is of course due to pressures within the country but he also seems to genuinely be a man of peace and moderation. Thus he is dismayed at the extremism of the neo-cons both in Israel and the US.

With Syria and Iraq in flames Jordan would have a serious internal strife on its hands. Should the wider war be engaged many would call for Jordan to put aside its peace treaty and join on the side of the other Arab nations in a war with Israel. If the King refuses then there will likely be Coup attempts against the monarch and wide spread rioting in an attempt to depose him. If he is overthrown then the Jordanian army will very likely come to Syria's aid and attack Israel. If he holds onto power then the country could be torn apart by civil war.

Map of Jordan

Map of Saudi Arabia

Green Countries> Turkey

Since the US invasion of Baghdad the Kurds in Iraqi controlled Kurdistan are now enjoying a period of some of the most autonomous rule they have known. The Turks accuse these Kurds of sending supplies and money to their Turkish contingent fuelling the rebellion. These Iraqi Kurds will for the most part stay quiet in the face of a bombing of Iran as their brethren in Iranian controlled Kurdistan have fought against the Iranian government numerous times. They will see themselves sharing a common enemy there with the US. However in the confusion, if the coalition forces are overrun and Iraq is disintegrating, the Turks may seize on the opportunity to invade the northern part of Iraq and engage the Kurdish units that they have long been spoiling for a fight with.

There is also a chance that should NATO be dragged further into a much larger war that Turkey would then be involved in some of this conflict as they are a NATO member state.

Map of Turkey

Red Countries> Afghanistan

After several misadventures in various other countries Usama Bin Laden led his Al Qaeda guerrilla army to Afghanistan, as he had fought in this nation in the past. Given his past ties to their country the Taleban government allowed Usama to take refuge there. It was here that he supposedly planned and launched the attacks that were to become known as 9/11. Following these attacks the United States issued an ultimatum to the Taleban’s leader, Mullah Omar. He was to immediately surrender Usama Bin Laden to the US forces and disband Al Qaeda or face a US led invasion. As with much of this World War there were some unsettling suggestions that the Neo-Cons had in fact pre-planned the invasion months before the September 11 attacks. They were intent on invading Afghanistan by October at the latest, prior to the winter snows setting in. It seems they would have launched this invasion even had the Taleban agreed with the ultimatum and delivered Usama to American hands.

In the face of this Mullah Omar refused to relent and the United States attacked. However, it was not purely a US operation. The US was able to enact Article 5 of the NATO charter. NATO is the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. It is a defence pact that involves 26 European and North American countries. The nations who are currently members of NATO are: Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. NATO was set up at the start of the cold war as a way of dealing with any potential attacks by the Soviet Union against the west. Article 5 of the defence pact states that any attack on a NATO country will be viewed as an attack on NATO as a whole and thus all the other nations must come to the aid of their ally. As the 9/11 Truth Movement didn’t even exist back then it was a no brainer for the US to prove that an outside agent had in fact attacked them.

What is more controversial though, is that they were able to tie this to the sovereign nation state of Afghanistan as a whole. At this stage no one argued that the US had in fact been attacked by the stateless Al Qaeda network. And the Taleban were harbouring this group, but whether this legally constituted an attack by Afghanistan against the US is still debatable. Regardless, NATO agreed to the invocation of Article 5 and thus a much broader conflict was building. The initial invasion was to be conducted by the US and a broader group of allies, including Australia, with logistical support from NATO. But the entire operation was to be eventually turned over to NATO completely. This was to see NATO forces setting up shop in an area of the world that was traditionally inside Russia’s sphere of influence. This was not pleasing to the conservatives inside the old cold war foe.

The war was initially swift. The Taleban lines of defence quickly collapsed in the face of the overwhelmingly superior US firepower. But it seems to have been nothing more than a tactical retreat. Mullah Omar, Usama Bin Laden and much of Al Qaeda escaped across the border into Pakistan where they continue to hide successfully. The Taleban melted away but then began to wage a guerrilla war that kept the US and NATO bogged down. This meant that the US backed Afghan government was essentially trapped inside the capital Kabul and had very little power over the rest of the country. Around the time of the Lebanon crisis in July 2006 the Taleban surged back into the southern provinces and began to recapture territory. The Afghan theatre was now in the final phases of being completely handed over to NATO. Suddenly NATO found itself faced once again with open war.

A group that called itself the Pakistani Taleban was assisting the Afghan Taleban. Both were still drawn from amongst the Pashtun peoples. The majority of the NATO forces in the south were drawn from the United Kingdoms troop commitment. They began to take horrendous casualties and were in danger of being overwhelmed at times. Units of Americans and Australians, who surprisingly are still on the ground despite not being a member of NATO, were called in to assist and a bloody battle has raged since July until now (Oct, 2006). The NATO forces are desperate for reinforcements but many of the NATO nations are now getting cold feet about partaking in this greater war that they see building. As such, only the Poles have agreed to rush more troops into the theatre.

After a few months of the British troops being essentially trapped in their bases in the south, some headway has finally been made in the past fortnight. However, this could just be through a diplomatic approach and be nothing more than a staged retreat by the NATO forces. It has seen the remotest NATO bases being closed and those areas put under the control of local tribal militias. There is a high risk though, that these militias could at any time switch allegiance and actually join with the Taleban so the entire front line of western forces in the region could in fact be collapsing.

Should Iran be bombed there will likely be a frenzy of new attacks on the ground in Afghanistan in retaliation. And given that Afghanistan shares a land border with Iran there is even a remote risk that Iranian forces could be used against NATO in this area, although they will more likely focus on Iraq where they have more historic ties. At any rate, if the US was hoping to launch its attack on Iran with the comfort of two fairly stable flanks, Afghanistan and Iraq, under its control, this is no longer the case on the ground. NATO forces will be much too busy battling the Taleban to hope to offer any help with regards to any broader Iranian conflict.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/1550366.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6060384.stm

map of Afghamistan

Map of Australia

Red Countries> Ethiopia

A UN appointed government that has ineffectually operated from the town of Baidoa for the past two years, in an attempt to combat the Warlordism that wracked the country, was nominally ruling neighbouring Somalia. As the Islamic revolution got closer to usurping this government the Ethiopians swore to protect this government at all costs.

Despite repeatedly denying it, some reports suggest that the Ethiopians have been sending troops across the border to Baidoa. Back in July, when the world was in such turmoil, they issued a direct warning to the Somali Islamic Council that they would launch a full-scale invasion if the Islamists entered Baidoa. Since then things have boiled away until this week, October 9th, when again the global conflict looms and the Ethiopians appear to have once more sent troops across the border into Somalia triggering the current crisis there.

Map of Ethiopia

Red Countries> Iran

Given that Iran’s new maverick President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has made several speeches in which he has indicated his desire to see Zionism as a political force thwarted and the nation state of Israel dissolved, the Israelis have also seized on Iran as the potential new super-threat to the region. However, the Israeli press has tended to a hysteria claiming that President Ahmadinejad wants to launch a new holocaust against the Jewish people in general. Ahmadinejad denies this, stating that he only wishes to see the political system of the state of Israel dissolved and does not want its peoples killed. Given the fact that there is a sizable population of Persian Jews currently living in Iran this seems like it could be a believable statement. He has every opportunity at his disposal to commit a holocaust or pogrom against Jews if he really wanted to in his own back yard and yet has never done this. However, he has not furthered his cause by also stating that he has doubts about the veracity of the original Holocaust’s existence.

This aside, Holocaust denial by one elected official is hardly the reason that the US is preparing for an insane and potentially suicidal war with Iran. The US is marching down an almost identical line that it did in the lead up to the Iraq war. It is claiming that Iran will shortly be a possessor of weapons of mass destruction and must be stopped at all costs. The international watchdog agency assigned by the UN to investigate such matters however, denies that this is the case. It has taken the step of issuing a letter to say that it takes “strong exception” to “incorrect and misleading statements” that are being circulated around Washington as it tries to muster support for the war. This is almost an identical repeat of the circus that led up to the Iraq invasion, with claims being made by the White House about WMD that the UN weapons inspectors themselves refute. After the Lebanon conflict failed to escalate to a point that sucked Iran in, the US is now reverting to its new doctrine of pre-emptive strikes based on flimsy or fabricated evidence.

Such a strike would have enormous consequences and the Iranians are aware of the power that they currently hold. The Iranians control a major flow of the world’s oil reserves. They are the fourth largest oil producing nation in the world. On top of this their navy is able to exert control over the Straits of Hormuz, the narrow strait of water at the tip of the Persian Gulf. Two fifths of the world’s oil flows through this small choke point. As such any attack on Iran would see a massive disruption to the world’s oil flows. The Iranians have the ability to mine or otherwise block with naval vessels this strait of water. As well, they have a missile capability which rather than being fired at Israel in a retaliatory strike, could instead be used to destroy most of the oil refineries on the Arabian Peninsula and in Iraq. The economic shock wave of this oil crisis would be felt around the world. Given that much of the world’s economy is currently under inflationary pressure a soaring oil price could be devastating to the entire global economy. As well, the Russians and the Chinese would be far from pleased about such an attack as they have been increasingly tied to Iranian oil for their economic prosperity.

Against this backdrop Iran continues to defy the US and refuses to shut down it’s nuclear program. The US is attempting to garner support for economic sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council as a first step of punishing them instead of or as part of a military showdown. But even this is not upsetting the Iranians. They are fully aware that Russia and China will keep the worst sanctions at bay, as they are increasingly concerned about protecting their oil supply. Coupled with this, the Iranians could just choose to switch their reserve currency from US dollars to Euros. This could spark a flurry of nations to follow suit, as the main oil pricing currency would then be Euros and not US dollars. Again this would be disastrous for the US economy. So for the US to be considering a military act against Iran shows either outright insanity or total desperation on the part of the Bush administration. And Iran also holds the cards to spark a great chaos on several of the flanking fronts of the greater war that are raging in neighbouring countries. They could even decide to invade across the borders into some of these countries with their roughly 700,000 strong army. The US and NATO forces in the region could be severely compromised by such an assault and would need a drastic reinforcing very quickly once such a war is instigated.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is aware of the stakes at hand and announced to his people back during the Lebanon crisis that the US was “pulling the trigger on a new world war”. He was fully aware that if the conflict had spiralled out of control and dragged his nation into it that a new world war would indeed be commencing. In light of this he held a huge war game practice run in August following the cessation of the Lebanese hostilities in order to signal his readiness for any conflict. His stance has somewhat softened though, in the last week. He still claims that Bush is being inspired by the “Devil”, terms that are reminiscent of his newfound Venezuelan friends take on things. However he is now telling his people that he does not believe the US will actually attack. He states that some people are making an unnecessary fuss about the US naval ships reportedly sailing towards the region. This newfound confidence could be inspired by the fact that he feels emboldened by the recent North Korean nuclear tests. Maybe he feels that the US is now outflanked and can no longer commit to a military attack with so many potential fronts opening up if they are crazy enough to go ahead with it. But he does not take into consideration the Israeli factor in these new speeches he has put forth. Possibly he is trying to quell domestic fears in the lead up to the war.

There has been a steady attempt to continue to link Iran’s ambitions with North Korea’s in the US press. This is undoubtedly to continue to shore up the veracity of the so called “Axis of Evil”. However there are very few cultural ties between these countries so it is a bizarre new alliance that seems to have formed here. One wonders if it really existed prior to Bush forcing it into existence with his policies. There was talk of Iranian military officials being present in North Korea for the missile launches back in July. Since the North Korean nuclear test, Ahmadinejad has also announced that Iran will officially reject the UN sanctions against that nation. So the links between the countries do appear to be becoming a reality. On some level the connection could be China, given their oil interests in Iran. As such, Iran really is now the key to the whole mess.

Blowing up Iran could blow up the world.

Map

Red Countries> Iraq

The situation on the ground in Iraq is utterly chaotic. There is a horrendous human cost being exacted there on a daily basis. Coalition casualties are spiralling. Some estimates suggest that the Coalition forces are coming under attack every 15 minutes. As well as the human cost, the financial cost has been tremendous. Trillions of dollars of cash have even gone “missing” in the confusion of this theatre of war. The low level sectarian violence between the Sunni and Shia factions within Iraq has erupted towards civil war especially since the disaster in Lebanon. This led the US to finally officially admit that Iraq is in a state of outright civil war. The civil war is seeing so called “death squads” slaughtering each other’s civilian populations at astounding levels. This has led to several competing conflicts taking place simultaneously adding to the confusion and the carnage.

The Sunni have been waging the main insurgency that has long been taking place against the Coalition forces of the invading outside nations. They were once the dominant force in Iraq and Saddam Hussein came from among their number. However, on a purely population size ratio they are a minority. They are increasingly concerned that should Iraq be broken up into three new nations divided among themselves, the Shia and the Kurds, that they will inherit a pauper state, as they have no great oil reserves. As such, they are fiercely opposed to the support that they see the Coalition giving the Shia, even if it is an accidental alliance forged out of circumstance. The new US-sponsored Iraqi government is primarily made up of Shia. Therefore, the Sunni militants are attacking both US forces and taking part in a civil war against the Shia. The US points the finger of blame for the Sunni insurgency at the “Axis of Evil” nation of Syria. They are accused of sponsoring and supplying this insurgency.

The relationship between the Shia and the Coalition has become increasingly confused and dangerous over the last four years of occupation in Iraq. The Shia are supported and sponsored by that other “Axis of Evil” country, Iran. The Shia have capitalised on the Americans ploy to bring ‘democracy’ to the country, as this would give them a great increase in power. Initially however, they were opposed to the invasion and quietly armed themselves, forming several powerful militias in order to take on the Coalition forces. The fiercest of these groups was the Mahdi army. Led by a Shiite cleric from Baghdad by the name of Moqtada al-Sadr, they initially engaged in a very successful insurgency against the Coalition forces. This ended with the US admitting that a stalemate had been reached and a tentative ceasefire was achieved between the forces. The US envisioned they would work out a way to disarm the Mahdi army later on after democracy had been completely installed in the country. This ceasefire has seen a few notable breakdowns, but for the most part has been maintained. This is due largely to the fact that the Shia saw the new Parliament as a chance to finally seize the bulk of power within Iraq. Thus they kept their militias quiet, although they never agreed to disarm them. In the meantime the Coalition forces battling with the Sunnis played in their favour as it took the heat off them.

All this however, was before the open civil war began between the two sides. Since the civil war began the Shia militias have been mainly involved in the killings of Sunnis and had not been attacking the Coalition so much. But since the Lebanon war all of this has changed. Given that Hezbollah was a fellow Iranian backed Shia group that was now under attack from the United States and its allies, tensions again grew between the Coalition and the Shia militias. This saw several battles again erupting between Coalition forces and the Mahdi army. Now as the Iran war looms a more serious showdown again seems on the horizon between the Shia in Iraq and the US. Moqtada al-Sadr has announced that he would support Iran completely if the US attacks. This would inevitably see the Mahdi army and probably all the other Shia militias again openly attacking the US. Indeed this potential seems not to have been lost on the US and two weeks ago a large operation was launched in Shia townships. This was the first serious conflict between the Shia and the US in some time. It could be an attempt to neutralise the militias prior to the Iranian operation beginning.

Either way, the very great risk is that following the bombing of Iran, the Shia would rise up in a tide of attacks against the Coalition that, coupled with the Sunni insurgency, could swamp their forces. It could even see a temporary ceasefire occurring between the Shia and the Sunni as they united once more against the invasion force. If Syria and Iran are really getting as cosy as the Americans seem to indicate, then this would seem to be a likelihood. Syria could try and steer the Sunnis away from civil war and to focus more on the Coalition. And the Iranians could call on the Shia to stop sectarian violence and to unite with the Sunni against the Coalition. Indeed, Moqtada al-Sadr made just such a call against sectarianism recently. This could see a horrendous “Tet Offensive” style disaster erupt for the Coalition.

The third force in Iraq are the long suffering Kurdish people. Kurdistan is currently divided between Iraq, Iran and Turkey. There is a long history of conflict between the Kurds and the various governments of the countries that hold their territory under their sway. For the most part Iraqi controlled Kurdistan has managed to survive the horrors that have beset the southern provinces. After the first month of the war and the fall of Baghdad the Kurds had not seen many offensives at all in their territory. It has been the quiet success story of the Iraq horror. The Kurds have maintained an atmosphere of peace in their region throughout the disaster of the rest of the country. However, they have been under threat from the Turks, who are very keen to invade and destroy the Kurdish infrastructure. The Kurds in Turkish controlled Kurdistan continue to wage a bloody war of secession against the Turkish army. The Turks, of course, see support and supplies for this insurgency coming across the border of the now very autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan. So they continue to request that the US let them invade.

Despite them being NATO allies, the US continues to deny their requests. They do not want to endanger the sizeable oil reserves that the Kurds in Iraq hold. The Kurds are ensuring that their oil continues to flow to the West so the US continues to block Turkish efforts to engage in open war with the Iraqi Kurds. The Kurds in Iraq made their first open requests for outright secession and an independent state separate from the rest of Iraq a week ago (circa 9/10/06). Condaleeza Rice was very quick to visit the region and let them know that the US does not support this idea. However some analysts have suggested that a full break up of Iraq is now inevitable and thus an independent Kurdistan would appear, much to the Turks dismay.

This is where Iraq currently sits -- the eye of the hurricane that threatens to tear the world apart. Baghdad is now the most violent city on the face of the planet. Given that it is one of the flanks of Iran, Iraq will see a tremendous increase in conflict if the Iran war begins.

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Red Countries> Israel

They were even forced into a deadly conflict with the neighbouring nation state of Lebanon in July, 2006. The Iranian-backed Hezbollah group staged a cross border raid similar to that of Hamas' and managed to snatch two Israeli soldiers. Rather than following the usual course that has been done in the past, when similar border skirmishes have taken place and negotiating a settlement to the problem, they launched a full-scale invasion of Lebanon. There is much suspicion that this was a pre-planned operation given the speed with which the bombing campaign swung into action.

Throughout the month of July, 2006 the Israelis pursued their action in the face of much international pressure to end the war. However the US ensured that the war continued and there is a large body of evidence to suggest that Bush was pressuring them the whole time to use it as an excuse to attack Syria. This would have inflamed an already teetering region and would no doubt have been the pretext that Bush was desperately looking for to begin the assault on Iran. This was, of course, not the first time that Israel and Lebanon had had a conflict. But it was the first time that the US kept trying to link it to Syria and Iran using such terms that made it seem an attack on these states was imminent.

The sane elements within Israeli society were able to prevent such an attack taking place as they undoubtedly saw the severe danger that it would have placed Israel in. They were already bogged down in the Palestinian Territories and Lebanon. Engaging Syria would have taken a lot of their resources and Iran had already threatened to rain missiles down on them if they attacked Syria. Their fate would then be in the hands of the US military and how quickly it could knock out Iran. Given the United States’ current "success" in Iraq and Afghanistan it is not such a sure bet that Israel could have weathered the hurricane that it would have sparked.

Following the United Nations diplomatic solution to the Lebanon war, the Israelis have, for the most part, pulled their troops back within their borders. They are still engaging in the odd incursion into Gaza but they are completely out of Lebanon. However the Israeli Neo-Cons are again calling for war. There is a flurry of diplomatic sparring going on with Syria again. There are even messages being put out that a renewed attack on Hezbollah inside Lebanon could occur at any time.

But much more serious are the rumblings that the North Korean nuclear test has caused. There was already much speculation that it would be the Israelis who would launch the initial pre-emptive bombing runs against the Iranian nuclear facilities, much as they did against Iraq’s back in the 1980’s. Since the North Korean test the hawks are clamouring for this even more. They claim that if North Korea can build one, that means Iran will shortly have one too -- and they must be stopped before this can happen. So it may be an Israeli plane that drops the first bombs on Iran -- although it would undoubtedly be the United States who would then fight the ensuing counter-war. If they choose to do this soon they will probably wait for the US forces to finish deploying to the area at the end of this month (Oct, 2006) before engaging in this suicidal mission.

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Red Countries> Lebanon

In July 2006 a Hezbollah raid to capture two Israeli soldiers, for use as bargaining chips in negotiations, ended in a bloody open war between the two sides. There is some argument over who began what. Some argue that Israel provoked Hezbollah into action so as to have an excuse to begin a massive exercise in an attempt to clear the ground prior to any larger actions with Iran. Coupled with this were US attempts to escalate the war so they could finally commence the bombing of Iran. Others argue that Hezbollah indeed began the crisis at the behest of Iran in an attempt to act as a foil and slow down the looming US-backed attack on their country. Regardless, all agree that a proxy US-Iran conflict was actually taking place in this latest battle between Israel and Lebanon.

The Lebanese people, of course, were callously disregarded in the ensuing conflict and many were mercilessly killed by the military action. Despite their stated intention that they wished to see the Lebanese people and regular army rise up against the Hezbollah faction, the Israeli tactics became more confusing and murky as the war dragged on. At times they were in fact openly attacking the regular Lebanese army as well as the Hezbollah militia. This could have been because of pressure from within Israel and massive pressure from the international community for the war to stop was up against an equal and opposite pressure from the Neo-Cons of the US for the war to continue. This friction led to the confused execution of the war. Thus, the blatant slaughter of the Lebanese took place along with a huge destruction of Lebanon’s civilian infrastructure. Hezbollah, for their part, rained supposed Iranian rockets down onto the northern part of Israel, killing a number of Israelis and destroying property.

Finally, intense French and European efforts at the United Nations were able to stop the attempts by the Neo-Cons to drag Syria and Iran into the fray and were able to silence the guns on the ground inside Lebanon. Israel retreated out of the area in what some view as almost a defeat at the hands of this militia. Under the UN deal a large number of peace-keeping forces have since been dispatched to the area to try and prevent an upsurge in violence. This force consists of a large contingent of French and Italian troops on the ground. The German navy has been deployed as well and is patrolling the waters of the Lebanese coast. For the first time in many years the Germans have been given much more aggressive rules of engagement. So again we see a large military build up occurring in the theatres that could be pivotal if the world war breaks out. Interestingly, the other country that has committed up to 1000 troops to this peace keeping force is China! Whilst united under the blue helmet of the UN, this force will surely see some strains put on it if a wider showdown with China is actually brewing.

Regardless, these peacekeepers are probably some of the most at risk in the world. The Israeli army have already shown that they will not worry if a UN force is in the way. They killed a number of UN peace observers already on the ground back in July 2006. If they feel the need to attack through such a force to hit Hezbollah and endanger the peace force to do so, they will have no qualms in doing this. And in one of the many videos that Al Qaeda has recently released they announced that this peace force was a valid target for attack from their side of things.

In the face of Israeli warnings that a new war with Hezbollah could erupt at any time there have been numerous mass rallies where literally hundreds of thousands of Lebanese have come out to say they now support the group. And Hezbollah has announced that they will not disarm and will be ready to fight the Israelis again when the time comes. Even the other parties in the Lebanese government are now supporting this idea as well. The whole thing has been yet another in the long line of disasters for Bush, et al. And should Iran be bombed it seems almost inevitable that the Lebanese front of the war would immediately reignite. It may even see a united front of Lebanese regular army units fighting side by side with Hezbollah.

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Red Countries> North Korea

George Bush managed to neatly tie them into the current World War with his state of the union speech that included them in the “Axis Of Evil” as a ‘terrorist state’ alongside Iraq and Iran. Thus they suddenly found themselves part of the growing world destabilisation even though they had little if nothing to do with the events of 9/11 or any of the classic conflicts in the Middle East. This makes some sense though, if this conflict has all along been an elaborate ploy to combat China’s growing dominance in the world economy. Given the isolationist policies of the North Korean regime they have indeed been completely reliant on China to provide the raw resources necessary to keep the state functioning viably. China supplies all the power and food to the nation state. Thus they do have an exceptionally close relationship with this country. Suspicions are often held that China uses North Korea as a proxy when it wants to make geopolitical manoeuvrers without directly implicating itself. So anyone wishing to take part in a similar ploy against China would need to make sure that North Korea could be taken care of if the need arose.

Since classifying them in this same category as Iraq and Iran, many neo-con publications have talked about regime change being enforced in North Korea as well. The North Koreans have been paranoid of attack even in good years. So now with a group that has shown when it talks about regime change it actually means regime change pointing the finger at them they have been slowly driven into a frenzy over the last four years. Now that Iraq has actually had regime change occur and Iran was well and truly on the chopping block as war preparations were being made earlier this year, 2006, the Koreans must have been feeling exceptionally at threat. So it is little wonder that they began breaking many of the international promises that they had been making to try and come back into the international fold.

Back in July 2006 they engaged in a missile test without warning that again put their region on high alert. It was only a week after this that the Lebanon war erupted. So it is possible that there was some interconnectivity with these events. Indeed, the US media was accusing Iranian military officials of having attended the launch again enforcing an “Axis Of Evil” link. The UN held an emergency session and passed a resolution that demanded the North Koreans desist their weapons program or face further sanctions. The North Koreans declared that this resolution was a prelude to a “new war on the Korean peninsula”. Their troops along the border with South Korea were put on high alert and there was even a small gun battle. It seemed highly likely at the time that if the Lebanon war had engulfed Syria and Iran that maybe the North Koreans would have used this chaos to attack the South. But the Lebanon war quietened again and things seemed to stabilise.

Then as word was trickling out to the public that an assault on Iran might again be imminent in October, the North Koreans once more arced up. This time they announced they were going to detonate a nuclear bomb in a test firing that would prove to the world they were now a nuclear nation. The North Koreans have long been suspected of having an untested nuclear bomb already, having received assistance from the Pakistani Dr Khan in their making of it. Interestingly, the other source of assistance that has helped them go nuclear was a US firm that in 2000 sold them nuclear power reactors. One of the directors of this company at the time was none other than Donald Rumsfeld.

Conducting such a test would destabilise the whole area as it could lead to a massive arms race in the region. Their traditional enemies, Japan and South Korea, could then try and make a weapon, which would be very displeasing to China. The weekend before the test their military along the border was again on high alert. And again a firefight erupted between North and South Korean soldiers. So tensions are running very hot at the border. The North Koreans of course, then actually came good with their threat and have detonated a bomb. This has sent shock waves through the region and seen another military build up in yet another potential theatre of the world war.

The world has been fairly unanimous in its condemnation of the test. Even Russia and China have said they are very displeased with what North Korea has done. This has lead to two schools of thought in analysis of what is happening in that region right now. Possibly the North Koreans have become so paranoid of what they see as an impending US attack, in order to force regime change, that they are now taking actions even well outside what their closest ally China would want. It really isn’t in China’s interest to see an arms race in the region. And publicly, China is certainly being very stern in its berating of North Korea.

Alternatively, the Chinese could have secretly asked the North Koreans to create the international incident in an attempt to outflank the Americans and put the breaks on their impending attack of Iran. The Chinese would not wish to see their supplies of oil out of Iran interrupted by the war or a new US influence over their oil supplies if such an attack occurred.

At any rate, Bush was quick to announce in the hours after the test that as well as detonating a bomb North Korea was selling missiles to Syria and Iran -- again placing them very squarely in the category of the “Axis Of Evil” which some Neo-Cons do openly call for all out war against. At this point the Americans deny they will attack North Korea, but the region is on tenterhooks. The North Koreans have announced they will detonate another nuclear device in the coming weeks, most probably right before the day of the US Mid-Terms. So they are keenly aware of what effect their actions are having on US domestic politics.

The UN has passed another round of sanctions against North Korea to punish it for its actions. But the North has declared that this amounts to an ‘act of war’ against them. There is still a chance that should the bombing of Iran go ahead the North Koreans might capitalise on this, or feel so threatened they have no choice, and invade the South. Such an invasion would be a costly war to all sides and would see the North Koreans in conflict with at least the South Korean and the United States military, if not other nations in the region like Japan. It would probably just be a conventional war despite all the North’s warnings that an all-out nuclear war on the peninsula could be imminent. It does not seem likely that the North has very many nuclear weapons, but it has a frightening array of conventional weapons at its disposal. And such, a war on the peninsula could eventually drag China in and it may not be on the side that the Americans would be expecting.

Map of North Korea

Red Countries> Pakistan

Following the attack of 9/11 it seemed that Pakistan would definitely be involved in the ensuing war on some level. Indeed, it initially seemed that Pakistan would be declared one of the many enemies of the west due to its historic links to the Taleban government of neighbouring Afghanistan. At the time there were even rumblings that it could be plunged into a new war with its other neighbour India, a much more traditional ally of the US. As the US attacked Afghanistan it seemed likely they would ask their ally India to take care of the Pakistan problem for them.

But this all changed when it was suddenly announced by the leader of Pakistan, a military dictator by the name of General Musharraf, that he would be an ally of the US and help in the attacks on Afghanistan. This was a great surprise at the time and would have seemed a great betrayal by the Taleban who had a strong presence on the Pakistani side of the border as well. It has recently emerged that General Musharraf made this decision to become a US ally because he was contacted in the hours after 9/11 by then US Deputy Director of State, Richard Armitage, and told to prepare to have his country “bombed back into the stone age”. This left General Musharraf's regime between a rock and a hard place. They chose to play a dangerous game of sitting on the fence that could still be the downfall of the entire nation.

The central government has ostensibly been helping the US and its allies in their war on terror. Indeed a number of suspects have been sent to Pakistan to be tortured as part of the ‘rendition’ network for acquiring information from terrorist suspects. However many suspect that internal groups of the military are still on the opposing side in this war which is giving Pakistani actions an almost schizophrenic feel.

The great danger that US military advisors warn against is that eventually General Musharraf will be overthrown and all pretence that Pakistan is a ‘friendly’ country will be lost and it will be yet another country that will have to be destroyed and attacked by the US war machine. Indeed there have been numerous assassination attempts against General Musharraf by the Taleban elements within Pakistan since 2001. Any attack on Iran would inflame this dangerous situation very rapidly. The heartland of the Taleban movement has long been the madrassah religious schools that exist within Pakistan. So as the conflict between the Taleban and NATO heats up next door in Afghanistan, this too is being felt in Pakistan.

There has long been suspicion that Mullah Omar and Usama Bin Laden have been safely hiding in the FATA region of Pakistan. The Pashtun in this area were strong supporters of the Taleban in Afghanistan. Traditionally the central government is not allowed to enter these areas for fear of sparking civil war in the country between these fierce tribes and the central army. And General Musharraf had managed to play the US into even greater farce by not allowing them to enter any of Pakistan’s territory. So the fugitives remain at large and essentially safe. Some limited co-operation had however been entered into which had seen Pakistani forces deployed into one of the Tribal Areas known as Waziristan. The whole balance seems to be shifting lately though, with even General Musharraf warning that the Taleban movement is growing so strong it may soon be seen as a generalised war of liberation for the entire Pashtun people.

In light of this the Pakistani military recently cut a new deal with the tribal leaders and began pulling back out of Waziristan, leaving the border security in the hands of the tribal militias, militias that are known to be sympathetic to the Taleban. It was about this time that the Pakistani Taleban began openly crossing the borders most likely along this area and entering into Afghanistan, assisting in wrecking great havoc on the NATO troops there. Certainly not the classic sort of help one might expect from an ally. It leaves open great questions as to how much control General Musharraf really has over the country at the moment.

As well as this the classic conflict between Pakistan and India over Kashmir has again reached a fever pitch. India accuses the Pakistani military of assisting and in some way running the militant organisations in this region. Since January 2006 there have been numerous attacks on Indian forces coupled with suicide bombings and other terrorist attacks. These are surprising actions from a nation supposedly at war with terrorism. This reached a head when a massive bombing occurred on the commuter train network of the Indian city of Mumbai back in July. This was an attack that was very reminiscent of the purported Al Qaeda train attacks in Madrid and London. An Indian report into the attack directly accused the Pakistani military of having links with and assisting the group that carried out the attack. This has led to a steady escalation in tensions again between India and Pakistan that could explode following any Iran destabilisation. Again this casts much doubt over whose side Pakistan really sits on. “You’re either for us or you’re against us” does not seem to apply in the case of Pakistan.

This has become increasingly clear in the recent nuclear crises. Back in the 90’s, after their enemy India acquired a nuclear bomb, Pakistan felt it necessary to follow suit. A scientist by the name of Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan was able to design one for them and became a national hero working closely with the new Musharraf government after he seized power. Recently however Musharraf has placed him under house arrest and it has become apparent that he was sending the Pakistani nuclear secrets to other countries. The UN has said it suspects that the uranium enrichment techniques that Iran is now capable of doing, for its peaceful energy reactors, did indeed originate from Dr Khan. So there is a strange Pakistan/Iran connection here when it comes to the nuclear showdown that the US is driving against the latter country. On top of this said Dr Khan also admitted to having sent nuclear technology to the North Koreans! Undoubtedly some of this has helped them in the development of their recent nuclear bomb. Again Pakistan sits on a bridge between enmity and ally with the US.

Against the backdrop of all this intrigue a greater push for internal chaos in Pakistan with the hopes of removing Musharraf have increased. The state of Balochistan has long had a simmering secession movement inside it but this has erupted dangerously since July of this year. Balochistan is the Pakistani state that borders Iran. The Baloch people are traditionally an Iranian peoples and Balochistan is divided between Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Iranians have had to deal with a similar push for secession from their Baloch minority but it is possible that they have set aside old differences and are using the Baloch issue to help destabilise another of the US’s allies in the region. There have been reports following questioning of captured Baloch rebels in the region that there is foreign involvement in stirring the trouble up to its recent heights.

From July of this year till now the rebellion has grown into a very serious war on the ground. Indeed it may have been because of the pressures in Balochistan that the Pakistani military chose to withdraw from Waziristan. Any US attack on Iran could see a more unified assault on General Musharraf within Pakistan. Pashtun and Baloch alike could begin a much more sustained campaign to overthrow him. And if this were successful it could see war raging in Pakistan on numerous fronts. From India in the east and against US forces along the Afghan and Iranian borders in the West. The aftermath of which could be a fragmented Pakistan.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/5289910.stm

Map of Pakistan

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Red Countries> Somalia

The Neo-Cons outlook on the country has always been suspicious. They feared that in the vacuum of the lack of centralised government the country was being used as a training and recruiting zone for ‘Terrorist Groups’. Therefore, it seems not such an outlandish theory that they were indeed backing the Warlords in order to have proxies in the region they could send to attack various elements they viewed as “Terrorists”. As with most of America’s overseas ‘friends’, they were far from a democratic or nice force to live under. Life under the Warlords in Somalia was a rough and raw affair with many gun battles and killings as the various Warlords vied for supremacy. Living ‘by the gun’ became the standard order of life under this tragic system.

It was actually a welcome relief for many Somalis when a group finally formed that was able to bring stability for the region. This was the Union of Islamic Courts and they managed to rally people around an Islamist approach to life, form a powerful army and finally defeat the Warlords in Mogadishu. The United States was anything if pleased about this for obvious reasons. As they wage their war against Islam around the world this was the last thing they wanted to see. As they began to take more and more of the country the UN appointed Government in Baidoa began to refer to the UIC as Somalia’s Al Qaeda. Although whether this is the truth of the matter on the ground is debatable. Regardless, the Americans have been making noises about their distaste with the UIC. In June, 2006 media outlets began wondering if this was going to be the next showdown in the “War On Terror”, as the US had pre-deployed anti- terror bases in Djibouti over the past years.

Thus it is hardly surprising that against this backdrop -- when the world exploded into crisis in July -- the UIC looked ready to topple the final non-UIC force, in the town of Baidoa, which would have consolidated most of the country under their control. But suddenly it appeared that Ethiopia had sent troops across the border although there were denials and counter claims. However Ethiopia did make it clear they would launch a large scale invasion if the UIC attacked Baidoa. This situation would surely have erupted had the Middle East front exploded as it threatened to during that month. However, the US war with Iran was postponed and the Somalis and Ethiopians seemed to have an uneasy standoff and weren’t willing to move into a larger war at the time. This situation has boiled away with a few tit for tat attacks but nothing serious until this week (9/10/06). Again it appears that as a US war with Iran looms the Ethiopians have sent troops into Somalia and captured a key town Bur Haqaba. Although the Ethiopians again deny troops being across the border the UIC has now officially announced it is in a state of holy war with Ethiopia. So it appears the dogs of war will be unleashed in the Horn of Africa very shortly.

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Red Countries> South Korea

Following the missile tests in July 2006 all the diplomatic efforts have been suspended and now it seems the South is facing the very real prospect of open war again for the first time in 50 years. They have been staging public drills and war games to prepare for this eventuality in a much more intense fashion over the past few months than has been the case over the last few years. Such a war would be devastating for the South. In the opening stages of war rockets aimed at it from across the border would devastate Seoul. Tens of thousands of casualties would be incurred on both sides of the border in the opening flurries of bombings that would precede any full scale invasion by the million strong North Korean army.

The United States bases in the area would then of course, rush into the fray and be engaged in open war with the North Koreans. If such a war was happening in conjunction with a much wider war in the Middle East, then the very real question is left open as to how far stretched the US could become before it was in over it’s head. It would of course, call on allies in the region to help but this would just ensure many more countries getting sucked into the World War. If some countries choose not to help, as they now see the Americans as having made this mess for themselves, this coupled with all the other fronts of the war could be the Bush’s Waterloo.

Map of South Korea

Red Countries> Syria

The accusations stand that Syria are the main material supporters of the Lebanese Hezbollah faction. Given Syria’s past history with Lebanon this is probably entirely true. On top of this are the accusations of Syria’s involvement in Iraq. Syria is run by a Sunni Baath party much like Iraq was. They are therefore being accused of assisting and arming the Sunni resistance in that country. They are also accused of being the gateway to Iraq for Jihadis travelling there to resist the occupation. If all these accusations have basis and are not just the bluster of the US, as an excuse to attack, then Syria is in fact, siting as a bridge to two sides of Islam that are very seriously fighting on the ground in Iraq. Hezbollah is a Shia faction and of course, the Sunni resistance in Iraq is Sunni. The ‘new’ Middle East is indeed a murky mess.

During the Lebanese conflict there seems to have been pressure from the US for Israel to again wage outright war with Syria, something that has not happened since the Yom Kippur war. Given how the cards are now stacked in the region this would have immediately engendered a counter strike by Iran onto Israel. And the ensuing snowball would have delivered the Neo-Cons their third world war. At the height of the conflict with Hezbollah it seemed that this far more dangerous war would erupt. The Syrians were announcing how far they would tolerate an Israeli advance into Lebanon before they would feel the need to attack and Israel announced that if any Hezbollah rockets hit Tel Aviv this would be cause for an outright strike on Syria. Thankfully, cool heads prevailed back then and this did not come to pass.

Now however, as the Iran War looms again, the war of words has once more erupted between Syria and Israel. The Syrian president has announced that he would like to discuss peace with Israel but under no circumstances will he trust the US. He then also made it clear that a militarisation in the country has taken place to be ready for any future conflict with Israel. The Israelis for their part have said this statement is threatening but have encouraged the Syrian president to visit Israel to discuss peace. The Syrian president however has stated he cannot do this until the Golan Heights are returned to Syria. And so the threatening rumbles begin to build again. Given Iran’s intention to protect Syria should it be attacked, one wonders if it is a reciprocal agreement. If it is an Israeli jet that dumps the first bombs on Iran, it may be that Syria will have to honour agreements with Iran and attack Israel on their behalf.

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Red Countries> United Kingdom

At any rate, the United Kingdom is bearing the brunt of the war in Afghanistan with its troops currently suffering under atrocious conditions and taking many casualties. It is unlikely that they would offer too much support for the Iran strike verbally, but once it has happened they have troops right on the front lines that stand the risk of being swamped in the ensuing chaos. It’s any ones guess what their plan to deal with that eventuality will be, or if it will just force them into the inevitability of having to prosecute a much larger war and introduce the draft to do so.

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Red Countries> United States

There is growing speculation that much of the current warfare the US is engaging in may indeed be a product of some sort of oil related grab. The Neo-Cons themselves are less likely to deny this at the moment. Much of this war seems to be shaping up as some sort of elaborate confrontation between the US and the Chinese. It could be that the Peak Oil theorists were correct and that what we are seeing is a mad grab for the final oil reserves. Or it could just be they felt threatened by the booming Chinese economy and its vast demand for these resources that had traditionally been the domain of the west, especially America. This could explain why they are becoming more and more reckless with the moves they are making each passing day.

The social impacts of a world war on America are potentially going to be devastating. There is a chance that martial law may be invoked and of course the Draft will surely have to rear its ugly head again. With the US economy also looking down the barrel of stagflation and potentially recession in the coming months any of the economic shock waves of the war could be felt extremely hard within the United States. In short it is a suicidal third front they are trying to open up in their war.

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SCO vs. NATO

In many ways the SCO is set up similarly to NATO and they have a mutual defence pact. It may not be as binding as NATO’s article 5 but it does seem that these nations have begun promising much closer military defence in the event of attacks from outside agents. Therefore any attack on Iran could see its SCO allies forced to come to its defence. In the months after 9/11 the US were able to set up bases in Uzbekistan from which it launched its invasion of Afghanistan. But at the urging of the SCO the Uzbeks have managed to close all the US bases and are now getting much closer to China through this organisation. So now the region is once more China and Russia’s domain.

Should the US be crazy enough to attack Iran it may see the Central Asian republics being sent to their defence. China appears to be getting ready for this potential and is drilling for this occurrence. The SCO holds regular joint military drills each year but this year has held numerous large scale war games with China and its Central Asian allies since the Lebanon crisis of July 06. Again this appears to be a military build up occurring in a potential theatre of this global war.

If such a clash were to occur then the very real risk would be that the US would then demand that NATO be used as a counter to this. NATO troops are already in neighbouring Afghanistan so the risk of the SCO coming into direct conflict with NATO rises. We could then see the broader world war shaping up as a giant clash between SCO and NATO nations.

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United Nations (UN)

So this institution that was set up to act as a failsafe to prevent global conflicts seems to be limping towards its own demise. Now a South Korean has been elected as the new Secretary General this just compounds the problems. He will not be viewed as being impartial by some of the groups who are involved in the build up to world war. So it seems unlikely that the UN will serve as an effective counter to the disaster that is building. Even if World War Three does not break out just the bombing of Iran itself could further undermine the UN in the eyes of the world. Should this organisation collapse completely one can only hope that a much more egalitarian organisation will rise from its ashes. And lets hope it will not literally be ashes it’s rising from. As the UN itself was forced to from the ashes of humanity left at the end of World War 2.

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CSTO vs. NATO

As with many of the nations involved in this global confusion mixed signals have been coming out of Russia. Initially President Putin of Russia was hailed as an ally in the “War On Terror” and indeed seemed to be taking the fight to the ‘Islamic’ enemy in its southern provinces, especially in Chechnya. But the neo-cons seem hopelessly stuck back in the days of the cold war and new suspicions about Russia have begun to grow. The US has thus undertaken to undermine Russian authority in its region thus heightening the tensions.

To counter what it sees as a renewed Russian power the US has fostered revolutions in former Soviet nations in an attempt to make them closer to Washington than Moscow. This saw the so-called coloured revolutions being sparked to bring ‘democracy’ to the region. These were peaceful uprisings by the populations of the nations in question designed to bring in democratic governments. The Orange revolution in the Ukraine saw a government friendly to the US being installed within that nation in 2004. It has since emerged that this apparently spontaneous peoples movement was actually carefully funded and encouraged by the US.

A similar revolution, the Rose revolution, also took place in Georgia in 2003. Again evidence has emerged that this revolution was sponsored and aided by the US. Georgia had onc